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Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models
Includes bibliographical references
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2016
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| _version_ | 1867613328204890112 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun |
| author2 | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph |
| author_browse | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun |
| author_facet | Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun |
| author_sort | Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | Includes bibliographical references |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16556 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:34:23.309Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/16556 Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph Stone, Dáithí A Environmental Studies Climatology Includes bibliographical references A good understanding of seasonal climate and the limit to which it can be predicted is crucial in addressing various socio-economic challenges in Africa. However, how to improve the capability of the dynamical models of the climate system in reproducing the regional seasonal climate variability and in replicating the role of various atmospheric circulation anomalies on the regional variability remains a major challenge. Thus far, understanding of seasonal climate over these regions, as well as the ability of climate models to predict them, has focused on the agreement of simulations of dynamical models of the climate system, rather than considering outliers as potentially vital contributors to understanding and predictability. This thesis uses discrepancy in a large ensemble of climate simulations as a tool to investigate variability in dominant seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns (i.e. classes) over West and Southern Africa, to examine the capability of climate models in reproducing the variability, and to study the predictability of the seasonal climates over South Africa. The dominant classes of variability (of rainfall and maximum temperature fields) in both regions are examined based on the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) classifications. The sequences in which each class occurs cannot be linked simply to a single common index of global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, implying that the chaotic regional atmospheric circulations that modulate the global scale modes of variability are indispensable. The climate model examined adequately reproduces the dominant classes of seasonal climate over West and Southern Africa. 2016-01-26T11:01:13Z 2016-01-26T11:01:13Z 2015 Doctoral Thesis Doctoral PhD http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16556 eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Environmental Studies Climatology Lawal, Kamoru Abiodun Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| thesis_degree_str | Doctoral |
| title | Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| title_full | Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| title_short | Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models |
| title_sort | understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over west and southern africa using climate models |
| topic | Environmental Studies Climatology |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16556 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lawalkamoruabiodun understandingthevariabilityandpredictabilityofseasonalclimatesoverwestandsouthernafricausingclimatemodels |