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Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5
In this thesis I examine the causal linkages between natural resource scarcity and violence. In contrast to previous research, I posit that scarcity is an inherently personal experience, and thus argue that the consequences of scarcity too, should be empirically tested at the individual level. The a...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Political Studies
2016
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| _version_ | 1867613182536712192 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Isbell, Thomas Alexander |
| author2 | Mattes, Robert |
| author_browse | Isbell, Thomas Alexander Mattes, Robert |
| author_facet | Mattes, Robert Isbell, Thomas Alexander |
| author_sort | Isbell, Thomas Alexander |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | In this thesis I examine the causal linkages between natural resource scarcity and violence. In contrast to previous research, I posit that scarcity is an inherently personal experience, and thus argue that the consequences of scarcity too, should be empirically tested at the individual level. The available literature has heavily relied on macro- level aggregate data, often producing inconclusive findings on the exact causality between scarcity and violence. Based on the theoretical work by Thomas Homer- Dixon, I apply micro- level household survey data in a multi- stage structural equation model to test the effect of people's social and political perceptions and attitudes on the linkage between scarcity and violence. I find both direct and indirect significant linkages between respondents' experienced scarcity ('lived scarcity') and their propensity to use violence. I find that the indirect effect on violence is explained by decreases in policy satisfaction, political trust and state legitimacy, and increases of more positive attitudes towards violence. From this, I suggest that experienced scarcity is 'politicized' by respondents as a policy failure, rather than being perceived as exogenous to the political system. My analysis supports the relevance of conditional meso- level factors, and finds strong differences between moderator groups regarding their propensity to use violence. While I find that the highest levels of use of violence in Kenya are driven by political competition, rather than ethnic competition, my path models clearly demonstrate that experienced food scarcity is a significant root cause of this violence through its effect on how people 'politicize' the experience of scarcity. Overall, the models suggest that the effects of scarcity are more complex than previously acknowledged. The risk of violence should thus not be estimated only through direct effects between scarcity and violence, but the risk should be understood in terms of both immediate, direct effects, and mid- and long- term, indirect effects such as decreased levels of political trust, lower perceptions of state legitimacy and more accepting attitudes towards violence. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/20696 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:32:05.102Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Department of Political Studies |
| publisherStr | Department of Political Studies |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/20696 Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 Isbell, Thomas Alexander Mattes, Robert International Relations In this thesis I examine the causal linkages between natural resource scarcity and violence. In contrast to previous research, I posit that scarcity is an inherently personal experience, and thus argue that the consequences of scarcity too, should be empirically tested at the individual level. The available literature has heavily relied on macro- level aggregate data, often producing inconclusive findings on the exact causality between scarcity and violence. Based on the theoretical work by Thomas Homer- Dixon, I apply micro- level household survey data in a multi- stage structural equation model to test the effect of people's social and political perceptions and attitudes on the linkage between scarcity and violence. I find both direct and indirect significant linkages between respondents' experienced scarcity ('lived scarcity') and their propensity to use violence. I find that the indirect effect on violence is explained by decreases in policy satisfaction, political trust and state legitimacy, and increases of more positive attitudes towards violence. From this, I suggest that experienced scarcity is 'politicized' by respondents as a policy failure, rather than being perceived as exogenous to the political system. My analysis supports the relevance of conditional meso- level factors, and finds strong differences between moderator groups regarding their propensity to use violence. While I find that the highest levels of use of violence in Kenya are driven by political competition, rather than ethnic competition, my path models clearly demonstrate that experienced food scarcity is a significant root cause of this violence through its effect on how people 'politicize' the experience of scarcity. Overall, the models suggest that the effects of scarcity are more complex than previously acknowledged. The risk of violence should thus not be estimated only through direct effects between scarcity and violence, but the risk should be understood in terms of both immediate, direct effects, and mid- and long- term, indirect effects such as decreased levels of political trust, lower perceptions of state legitimacy and more accepting attitudes towards violence. 2016-07-25T11:29:35Z 2016-07-25T11:29:35Z 2016 Master Thesis Masters MA http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20696 eng application/pdf Department of Political Studies Faculty of Humanities University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | International Relations Isbell, Thomas Alexander Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| title_full | Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| title_fullStr | Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| title_short | Lived scarcity, social attitudes and political behaviour in Kenya : evidence from Afrobarometer Round 5 |
| title_sort | lived scarcity social attitudes and political behaviour in kenya evidence from afrobarometer round 5 |
| topic | International Relations |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20696 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT isbellthomasalexander livedscarcitysocialattitudesandpoliticalbehaviourinkenyaevidencefromafrobarometerround5 |