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An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa
The South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable G...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Research of GSB
2017
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| _version_ | 1867613197024886784 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Tukwayo, Yonela |
| author2 | Altieri, Katye |
| author_browse | Altieri, Katye Tukwayo, Yonela |
| author_facet | Altieri, Katye Tukwayo, Yonela |
| author_sort | Tukwayo, Yonela |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | The South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model adapted for the South African energy sector to analyse the potential socio-economic impacts of the development of shale gas. Simulation results indicate potential negative impacts on GDP contribution by all the sectors simulated, except the natural gas sector and the Gas-to-Liquid petroleum sector, as well as potential negative impacts on employment. The negative impacts on growth and employment are likely to worsen poverty and inequality. Potential impacts on trade are negative as the trade deficit increases. In terms of environmental impacts, the uptake of gas would decrease CO2 emissions. All results are compared to the baseline scenario. Based on these results, it is recommended that the decision on whether the development should go ahead or not ought to take into account the potential socio-economic costs, and potential ways to hedge against them. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/25515 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:32:18.917Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Research of GSB |
| publisherStr | Research of GSB |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/25515 An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa Tukwayo, Yonela Altieri, Katye Caetano, Tara Helena Development Finance The South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model adapted for the South African energy sector to analyse the potential socio-economic impacts of the development of shale gas. Simulation results indicate potential negative impacts on GDP contribution by all the sectors simulated, except the natural gas sector and the Gas-to-Liquid petroleum sector, as well as potential negative impacts on employment. The negative impacts on growth and employment are likely to worsen poverty and inequality. Potential impacts on trade are negative as the trade deficit increases. In terms of environmental impacts, the uptake of gas would decrease CO2 emissions. All results are compared to the baseline scenario. Based on these results, it is recommended that the decision on whether the development should go ahead or not ought to take into account the potential socio-economic costs, and potential ways to hedge against them. 2017-10-04T14:21:05Z 2017-10-04T14:21:05Z 2016 Master Thesis Masters MCom http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515 eng application/pdf Research of GSB Faculty of Commerce University of Cape Town |
| spellingShingle | Development Finance Tukwayo, Yonela An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| title_full | An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| title_short | An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South Africa |
| title_sort | analysis of the potential socio economic impacts of shale gas development in south africa |
| topic | Development Finance |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25515 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tukwayoyonela ananalysisofthepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsofshalegasdevelopmentinsouthafrica AT tukwayoyonela analysisofthepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsofshalegasdevelopmentinsouthafrica |