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Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability

Bond market capitalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa is low even compared with the other developing economies. This dissertation thus examines the drivers of the development of local currency bond markets in 15 Sub-Saharan African economies over the period from 2003 to 2013, with a focus on the signific...

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Main Author: Matshego, Isaac
Other Authors: Gossel, Sean
Format: Thesis
Language:Eng
Published: Graduate School of Business (GSB) 2019
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access_status_str Open Access
author Matshego, Isaac
author2 Gossel, Sean
author_browse Gossel, Sean
Matshego, Isaac
author_facet Gossel, Sean
Matshego, Isaac
author_sort Matshego, Isaac
collection Thesis
description Bond market capitalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa is low even compared with the other developing economies. This dissertation thus examines the drivers of the development of local currency bond markets in 15 Sub-Saharan African economies over the period from 2003 to 2013, with a focus on the significance of macroeconomic stability proxied by exchange rate volatility. The empirical analysis focuses on government bond capitalisation, while the corporate bond market analysis focuses on seven of these economies for the period of 2004 to 2015. Possible explanatory factors are identified from the literature which attributes the development of local currency bond markets in developing economies to macroeconomic and institutional factors. The results of a dynamic panel data model show that macroeconomic instability is significant and negatively associated with local currency bond market capitalisation. In contrast, capital account openness is found to expand the investor base, for the low to lower-middle income economies in particular, while monetary credibility is positive and significant for bond market development irrespective of the monetary policy framework. Thus, this research suggests that the optimal set of policy options for local currency bond market development should encompass exchange rate stabilisation, capital account liberalisation, and monetary credibility.
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institution University of Cape Town (South Africa)
language Eng
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license_str Not specified — see source repository
provenance_str_mv Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository
publishDate 2019
publishDateRange 2019
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publisher Graduate School of Business (GSB)
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spelling oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/30392 Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability Matshego, Isaac Gossel, Sean Bond market capitalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa is low even compared with the other developing economies. This dissertation thus examines the drivers of the development of local currency bond markets in 15 Sub-Saharan African economies over the period from 2003 to 2013, with a focus on the significance of macroeconomic stability proxied by exchange rate volatility. The empirical analysis focuses on government bond capitalisation, while the corporate bond market analysis focuses on seven of these economies for the period of 2004 to 2015. Possible explanatory factors are identified from the literature which attributes the development of local currency bond markets in developing economies to macroeconomic and institutional factors. The results of a dynamic panel data model show that macroeconomic instability is significant and negatively associated with local currency bond market capitalisation. In contrast, capital account openness is found to expand the investor base, for the low to lower-middle income economies in particular, while monetary credibility is positive and significant for bond market development irrespective of the monetary policy framework. Thus, this research suggests that the optimal set of policy options for local currency bond market development should encompass exchange rate stabilisation, capital account liberalisation, and monetary credibility. 2019-08-01T08:20:54Z 2019-08-01T08:20:54Z 2019 2019-07-31T07:39:48Z Master Thesis Masters MBA http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30392 Eng application/pdf Graduate School of Business (GSB) Faculty of Commerce
spellingShingle Matshego, Isaac
Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
thesis_degree_str Master's
title Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
title_full Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
title_fullStr Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
title_full_unstemmed Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
title_short Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
title_sort determinants of the development of a local currency bond market the significance of macroeconomic stability
url http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30392
work_keys_str_mv AT matshegoisaac determinantsofthedevelopmentofalocalcurrencybondmarketthesignificanceofmacroeconomicstability