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The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa
This study examines the dynamic short- and long-run causal relationship between South African real house prices and macroeconomic fundamentals (gross domestic product, mortgage rate, exchange rate-USDZAR, affordability, household debt to disposable income, unemployment rate, share prices (JSE ALL sh...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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School of Economics
2022
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| _version_ | 1867613667668787201 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent |
| author2 | Ndlovu, Godfrey |
| author_browse | Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent Ndlovu, Godfrey |
| author_facet | Ndlovu, Godfrey Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent |
| author_sort | Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | This study examines the dynamic short- and long-run causal relationship between South African real house prices and macroeconomic fundamentals (gross domestic product, mortgage rate, exchange rate-USDZAR, affordability, household debt to disposable income, unemployment rate, share prices (JSE ALL share index), foreign direct investment, and producer price index) over the 2000Q1-2019Q4 period. The study utilizes a vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the short- and long-run causal relationships while accounting for endogeneity and reverse causality. The results suggest the existence of a significant short-run and long-run association between house prices and macroeconomic fundamental variables under review. More specifically, the empirical results presented reveal that the gross domestic product and producer price index had the most impact on house prices compared to all other variables. Furthermore, any disequilibrium of house prices from its fundamental determinants in the short-run always self-corrects in the long run. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/35892 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:39:47.825Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | School of Economics |
| publisherStr | School of Economics |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/35892 The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent Ndlovu, Godfrey Economics This study examines the dynamic short- and long-run causal relationship between South African real house prices and macroeconomic fundamentals (gross domestic product, mortgage rate, exchange rate-USDZAR, affordability, household debt to disposable income, unemployment rate, share prices (JSE ALL share index), foreign direct investment, and producer price index) over the 2000Q1-2019Q4 period. The study utilizes a vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the short- and long-run causal relationships while accounting for endogeneity and reverse causality. The results suggest the existence of a significant short-run and long-run association between house prices and macroeconomic fundamental variables under review. More specifically, the empirical results presented reveal that the gross domestic product and producer price index had the most impact on house prices compared to all other variables. Furthermore, any disequilibrium of house prices from its fundamental determinants in the short-run always self-corrects in the long run. 2022-03-04T07:31:19Z 2022-03-04T07:31:19Z 2021 2022-03-02T08:40:57Z Master Thesis Masters MCom http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35892 eng application/pdf School of Economics Faculty of Commerce |
| spellingShingle | Economics Lekhuleni, Thami Innocent The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| thesis_degree_str | Master's |
| title | The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| title_full | The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| title_fullStr | The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| title_short | The dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices: Evidence from South Africa |
| title_sort | dynamic effect of macroeconomic factors on housing prices evidence from south africa |
| topic | Economics |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/35892 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lekhulenithamiinnocent thedynamiceffectofmacroeconomicfactorsonhousingpricesevidencefromsouthafrica AT lekhulenithamiinnocent dynamiceffectofmacroeconomicfactorsonhousingpricesevidencefromsouthafrica |