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Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa
The specificities of the African decision context are not well understood and are often not considered in the development, tailoring and supply of climate services for Africa. Yet, the utility of climate services relies on them being suitable for the decision context, so an understanding of the deci...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Department of Environmental and Geographical Science
2023
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| _version_ | 1867614283041341440 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Steynor, Anna |
| author2 | Hewitson, Bruce |
| author_browse | Hewitson, Bruce Steynor, Anna |
| author_facet | Hewitson, Bruce Steynor, Anna |
| author_sort | Steynor, Anna |
| collection | Thesis |
| description | The specificities of the African decision context are not well understood and are often not considered in the development, tailoring and supply of climate services for Africa. Yet, the utility of climate services relies on them being suitable for the decision context, so an understanding of the decision context should be central to climate services development. One unexplored approach to deepening an understanding of the decision context for climate services is through climate change risk perceptions, because perceptions of climate change risk influence whether decision makers take action on climate change as well as what information they seek and use to take action. Accordingly, this study uses data collected through a regional survey (N = 474) and semi-structured interviews (N = 36) to explore and better understand climate change risk perceptions amongst policy decision influencers in east Africa. The data informs three separate analyses. First, a climate change risk perceptions model is constructed, elucidating how various risk perception determinants interact to influence climate change risk perceptions and professional action on climate change in east Africa. This model shows that the pathway to climate change risk perceptions differs depending on individual value systems. Heightened climate change risk perceptions of those with primarily self-enhancing (inward looking) values are predominantly influenced by social norms, whereas heightened climate change risk perceptions of those with primarily self-transcending (outward facing) values are predominantly influenced by experience of extreme events and the psychological proximity of climate change. Second, the identified climate change risk perception determinants are quantified and explored to better understand the specificities of the decision context in which climate services are used. Climate change risk perceptions are found to be heightened, driven by observance of social norms, perceptions of climate change as a proximal risk, frequent experience of extreme weather events and a predominantly self-transcending value system among policy decision influencers. Lastly, the relationships between determinants of climate change risk perceptions and the use of climate services information are quantified and explored to evaluate gaps in currently available climate services. The analysis reveals three main gaps, namely the lack of long-term climate change projections disseminated through National Meteorological Services, the limited locally ground-truthed delivery of impact-based forecasts and inadequate capacity development of climate services users to understand and use complex climate information. The study culminates in a proposed framework for the enhancement of climate services for east Africa, based on understanding gained through the study. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/38179 |
| institution | University of Cape Town (South Africa) |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:49:34.690Z |
| license_str | Not specified — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| publisherStr | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | UCTD — University of Cape Town Open Access Repository |
| spelling | oai:open.uct.ac.za:11427/38179 Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa Steynor, Anna Hewitson, Bruce Pasquini, Lorena Environmental and Geographical Science The specificities of the African decision context are not well understood and are often not considered in the development, tailoring and supply of climate services for Africa. Yet, the utility of climate services relies on them being suitable for the decision context, so an understanding of the decision context should be central to climate services development. One unexplored approach to deepening an understanding of the decision context for climate services is through climate change risk perceptions, because perceptions of climate change risk influence whether decision makers take action on climate change as well as what information they seek and use to take action. Accordingly, this study uses data collected through a regional survey (N = 474) and semi-structured interviews (N = 36) to explore and better understand climate change risk perceptions amongst policy decision influencers in east Africa. The data informs three separate analyses. First, a climate change risk perceptions model is constructed, elucidating how various risk perception determinants interact to influence climate change risk perceptions and professional action on climate change in east Africa. This model shows that the pathway to climate change risk perceptions differs depending on individual value systems. Heightened climate change risk perceptions of those with primarily self-enhancing (inward looking) values are predominantly influenced by social norms, whereas heightened climate change risk perceptions of those with primarily self-transcending (outward facing) values are predominantly influenced by experience of extreme events and the psychological proximity of climate change. Second, the identified climate change risk perception determinants are quantified and explored to better understand the specificities of the decision context in which climate services are used. Climate change risk perceptions are found to be heightened, driven by observance of social norms, perceptions of climate change as a proximal risk, frequent experience of extreme weather events and a predominantly self-transcending value system among policy decision influencers. Lastly, the relationships between determinants of climate change risk perceptions and the use of climate services information are quantified and explored to evaluate gaps in currently available climate services. The analysis reveals three main gaps, namely the lack of long-term climate change projections disseminated through National Meteorological Services, the limited locally ground-truthed delivery of impact-based forecasts and inadequate capacity development of climate services users to understand and use complex climate information. The study culminates in a proposed framework for the enhancement of climate services for east Africa, based on understanding gained through the study. 2023-07-30T07:45:30Z 2023-07-30T07:45:30Z 2023 2023-07-30T07:44:42Z Doctoral Thesis Doctoral PhD http://hdl.handle.net/11427/38179 eng application/pdf Department of Environmental and Geographical Science Faculty of Science |
| spellingShingle | Environmental and Geographical Science Steynor, Anna Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| thesis_degree_str | Doctoral |
| title | Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| title_full | Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| title_short | Exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in East Africa |
| title_sort | exploring the role of climate change risk perceptions in informing climate services for adaptation in east africa |
| topic | Environmental and Geographical Science |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11427/38179 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT steynoranna exploringtheroleofclimatechangeriskperceptionsininformingclimateservicesforadaptationineastafrica |